Contribution of natural decadal variability to global warming acceleration and hiatus

Masahiro Watanabe (), Hideo Shiogama, Hiroaki Tatebe, Michiya Hayashi, Masayoshi Ishii and Masahide Kimoto
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Masahiro Watanabe: Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa Chiba 277-8568, Japan
Hideo Shiogama: Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
Hiroaki Tatebe: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan
Michiya Hayashi: Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa Chiba 277-8568, Japan
Masayoshi Ishii: Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan
Masahide Kimoto: Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa Chiba 277-8568, Japan

Nature Climate Change, 2014, vol. 4, issue 10, 893-897

Abstract: The role of natural decadal variability in the global warming slowdown has been hinted at, but not quantified. This study looks at decadal average surface temperature anomalies for the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. The results show that decadal variability is a large contributor to temperature trends, but its influence has decreased, from 47% in the 1980s to 27% in the 2000s, as anthropogenic warming has increased.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2355

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