Time of emergence for regional sea-level change

Kewei Lyu, Xuebin Zhang (), John A. Church, Aimée B. A. Slangen and Jianyu Hu
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Kewei Lyu: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
Xuebin Zhang: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
John A. Church: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
Aimée B. A. Slangen: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
Jianyu Hu: State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University

Nature Climate Change, 2014, vol. 4, issue 11, 1006-1010

Abstract: This work investigates when the anthropogenic signal in regional sea-level rise will emerge from natural variability. Considering thermal expansion and changes in density and circulation, 50% of the global ocean will show an anthropogenic signal by the early-to-mid 2040s, whereas when all variables are considered, the anthropogenic signal will emerge in over 50% of the global ocean by 2020. This is substantially earlier than for surface air temperature and has little dependence on emissions scenarios.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2397

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