Delays in reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change

Maggie Hodges, Jessica H. Belle, Elizabeth J. Carlton, Song Liang, Huazhong Li, Wei Luo, Matthew C. Freeman, Yang Liu, Yang Gao, Jeremy J. Hess and Justin V. Remais ()
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Maggie Hodges: Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd NE Atlanta, Georgia 30322, USA
Jessica H. Belle: Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd NE Atlanta, Georgia 30322, USA
Elizabeth J. Carlton: Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, 13001 E. 17th Place Aurora, Colorado 80045, USA
Song Liang: College of Public Health and Health Professions, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, 2055 Mowry Road Gainesville, Florida 32610, USA
Huazhong Li: Office of Disease Control and Emergency Response, China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District Beijing 102206, China
Wei Luo: Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 18 Shuangqing Road, Haidian District Beijing 100085, China
Matthew C. Freeman: Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd NE Atlanta, Georgia 30322, USA
Yang Liu: Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd NE Atlanta, Georgia 30322, USA
Yang Gao: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Boulevard Richland, Washington 99352, USA
Jeremy J. Hess: Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd NE Atlanta, Georgia 30322, USA
Justin V. Remais: Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd NE Atlanta, Georgia 30322, USA

Nature Climate Change, 2014, vol. 4, issue 12, 1109-1115

Abstract: Abstract Despite China’s rapid progress in improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation and 401 million to household piped water. As certain infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in both climate and WSH conditions, we projected impacts of climate change on WSH-attributable diseases in China in 2020 and 2030 by coupling estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrhoeal diseases and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios, and projected demographic changes. By 2030, climate change is projected to delay China’s rapid progress towards reducing WSH-attributable infectious disease burden by 8–85 months. This development delay summarizes the adverse impact of climate change on WSH-attributable infectious diseases in China, and can be used in other settings where a significant health burden may accompany future changes in climate even as the total burden of disease falls owing to non-climate reasons.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2428

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