Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus

Matthew H. England (), Shayne McGregor, Paul Spence, Gerald A. Meehl, Axel Timmermann, Wenju Cai, Alex Sen Gupta, Michael J. McPhaden, Ariaan Purich and Agus Santoso
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Matthew H. England: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales
Shayne McGregor: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales
Paul Spence: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales
Gerald A. Meehl: National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder Colorado 80307 USA
Axel Timmermann: International Pacific Research Centre, University of Hawaii
Wenju Cai: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Aspendale Victoria 3195 Australia
Alex Sen Gupta: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales
Michael J. McPhaden: NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Seattle Washington 98115 USA
Ariaan Purich: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Aspendale Victoria 3195 Australia
Agus Santoso: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales

Nature Climate Change, 2014, vol. 4, issue 3, 222-227

Abstract: Abstract Despite ongoing increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, the Earth’s global average surface air temperature has remained more or less steady since 2001. A variety of mechanisms have been proposed to account for this slowdown in surface warming. A key component of the global hiatus that has been identified is cool eastern Pacific sea surface temperature, but it is unclear how the ocean has remained relatively cool there in spite of ongoing increases in radiative forcing. Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades—unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models—is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake. The extra uptake has come about through increased subduction in the Pacific shallow overturning cells, enhancing heat convergence in the equatorial thermocline. At the same time, the accelerated trade winds have increased equatorial upwelling in the central and eastern Pacific, lowering sea surface temperature there, which drives further cooling in other regions. The net effect of these anomalous winds is a cooling in the 2012 global average surface air temperature of 0.1–0.2 °C, which can account for much of the hiatus in surface warming observed since 2001. This hiatus could persist for much of the present decade if the trade wind trends continue, however rapid warming is expected to resume once the anomalous wind trends abate.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2106

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