Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model

Elizabeth J. Kendon (), Nigel M. Roberts, Hayley J. Fowler, Malcolm J. Roberts, Steven C. Chan and Catherine A. Senior
Additional contact information
Elizabeth J. Kendon: Met Office Hadley Centre
Nigel M. Roberts: MetOffice@Reading
Hayley J. Fowler: School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle, NE1 7RU
Malcolm J. Roberts: Met Office Hadley Centre
Steven C. Chan: School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle, NE1 7RU
Catherine A. Senior: Met Office Hadley Centre

Nature Climate Change, 2014, vol. 4, issue 7, 570-576

Abstract: Changes in precipitation extremes are occurring under climate change, but how they will manifest on sub-daily timescales is uncertain. This study used a high-resolution model, typically used for weather forecasting, to simulate hourly rainfall in the UK in the year 2100. The results confirmed previous findings of winter rainfall intensification and found that short-duration rainfall intensified in summer, increasing the risk of flash flooding.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2258

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