Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase

James S. Risbey (), Stephan Lewandowsky, Clothilde Langlais, Didier P. Monselesan, Terence J. O’Kane and Naomi Oreskes
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James S. Risbey: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Stephan Lewandowsky: School of Experimental Psychology and Cabot Institute, University of Bristol
Clothilde Langlais: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Didier P. Monselesan: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Terence J. O’Kane: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Naomi Oreskes: Harvard University

Nature Climate Change, 2014, vol. 4, issue 9, 835-840

Abstract: Abstract The question of how climate model projections have tracked the actual evolution of global mean surface air temperature is important in establishing the credibility of their projections. Some studies and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report suggest that the recent 15-year period (1998–2012) provides evidence that models are overestimating current temperature evolution. Such comparisons are not evidence against model trends because they represent only one realization where the decadal natural variability component of the model climate is generally not in phase with observations. We present a more appropriate test of models where only those models with natural variability (represented by El Niño/Southern Oscillation) largely in phase with observations are selected from multi-model ensembles for comparison with observations. These tests show that climate models have provided good estimates of 15-year trends, including for recent periods and for Pacific spatial trend patterns.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2310

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