Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming

C. D. Roberts (), M. D. Palmer, D. McNeall and M. Collins
Additional contact information
C. D. Roberts: Met Office Hadley Centre
M. D. Palmer: Met Office Hadley Centre
D. McNeall: Met Office Hadley Centre
M. Collins: University of Exeter

Nature Climate Change, 2015, vol. 5, issue 4, 337-342

Abstract: The probability of a hiatus in global warming is calculated, with a 10-year event having a probability of ∼10%, but a 20-year event less than 1%. The current 15-year event is found to have up to 25% chance of continuing for another 5 years.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2531

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