High carbon and biodiversity costs from converting Africa’s wet savannahs to cropland

Timothy D. Searchinger (), Lyndon Estes (), Philip K. Thornton, Tim Beringer, An Notenbaert, Daniel Rubenstein, Ralph Heimlich, Rachel Licker and Mario Herrero
Additional contact information
Timothy D. Searchinger: Princeton University
Lyndon Estes: Princeton University
Philip K. Thornton: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), PO Box 30709, ILRI Nairobi 00100, Kenya
Tim Beringer: IASS Potsdam, Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V., Berliner Strasse 130 D-14467 Potsdam, Germany
An Notenbaert: International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Kasarani Rd, ICIPE Complex, PO Box 823 00621 Nairobi, Kenya
Daniel Rubenstein: Princeton University
Ralph Heimlich: Agricultural Conservation Economics
Rachel Licker: Princeton University
Mario Herrero: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Agriculture Flagship, 306 Carmody Road, St Lucia Queensland 4067, Australia

Nature Climate Change, 2015, vol. 5, issue 5, 481-486

Abstract: Abstract Do the wet savannahs and shrublands of Africa provide a large reserve of potential croplands to produce food staples or bioenergy with low carbon and biodiversity costs? We find that only small percentages of these lands have meaningful potential to be low-carbon sources of maize (∼2%) or soybeans (9.5–11.5%), meaning that their conversion would release at least one-third less carbon per ton of crop than released on average for the production of those crops on existing croplands. Factoring in land-use change, less than 1% is likely to produce cellulosic ethanol that would meet European standards for greenhouse gas reductions. Biodiversity effects of converting these lands are also likely to be significant as bird and mammal richness is comparable to that of the world’s tropical forest regions. Our findings contrast with influential studies that assume these lands provide a large, low-environmental-cost cropland reserve.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2584

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