Greenhouse-gas payback times for crop-based biofuels

P. M. F. Elshout (), R. van Zelm, J. Balkovic, M. Obersteiner, E. Schmid, R. Skalsky, M. van der Velde and M. A. J. Huijbregts
Additional contact information
P. M. F. Elshout: Radboud University Nijmegen, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, PO Box 9010
R. van Zelm: Radboud University Nijmegen, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, PO Box 9010
J. Balkovic: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems Services & Management Program, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
M. Obersteiner: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems Services & Management Program, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
E. Schmid: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, Feistmantelstrasse 4, A-1180 Vienna, Austria
R. Skalsky: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems Services & Management Program, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
M. van der Velde: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems Services & Management Program, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
M. A. J. Huijbregts: Radboud University Nijmegen, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, PO Box 9010

Nature Climate Change, 2015, vol. 5, issue 6, 604-610

Abstract: Abstract A global increase in the demand for crop-based biofuels may be met by cropland expansion, and could require the sacrifice of natural vegetation. Such land transformation alters the carbon and nitrogen cycles of the original system, and causes significant greenhouse-gas emissions, which should be considered when assessing the global warming performance of crop-based biofuels. As an indicator of this performance we propose the use of greenhouse-gas payback time (GPBT), that is, the number of years it takes before the greenhouse-gas savings due to displacing fossil fuels with biofuels equal the initial losses of carbon and nitrogen stocks from the original ecosystem. Spatially explicit global GPBTs were derived for biofuel production systems using five different feedstocks (corn, rapeseed, soybean, sugarcane and winter wheat), cultivated under no-input and high-input farm management. Overall, GPBTs were found to range between 1 and 162 years (95% range, median: 19 years) with the longest GPBTs occurring in the tropics. Replacing no-input with high-input farming typically shortened the GPBTs by 45 to 79%. Location of crop cultivation was identified as the primary factor driving variation in GPBTs. This study underscores the importance of using spatially explicit impact assessments to guide biofuel policy.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2642

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