Projections of climate conditions that increase coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance and virulence

Jeffrey Maynard (), Ruben van Hooidonk, C. Mark Eakin, Marjetta Puotinen, Melissa Garren, Gareth Williams, Scott F. Heron, Joleah Lamb, Ernesto Weil, Bette Willis and C. Drew Harvell
Additional contact information
Jeffrey Maynard: Cornell University
Ruben van Hooidonk: NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway Miami, Florida 33149, USA
C. Mark Eakin: NOAA Coral Reef Watch, NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research, 5830 University Research Ct., E/RA3
Marjetta Puotinen: Australian Institute of Marine Science, 35 Stirling Hwy Crawley 6009, Western Australia, Australia
Melissa Garren: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 15 Vassar St. Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA
Gareth Williams: Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Scott F. Heron: NOAA Coral Reef Watch, NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research, 5830 University Research Ct., E/RA3
Joleah Lamb: Cornell University
Ernesto Weil: University of Puerto Rico
Bette Willis: Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, and College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University
C. Drew Harvell: Cornell University

Nature Climate Change, 2015, vol. 5, issue 7, 688-694

Abstract: Abstract Rising sea temperatures are likely to increase the frequency of disease outbreaks affecting reef-building corals through impacts on coral hosts and pathogens. We present and compare climate model projections of temperature conditions that will increase coral susceptibility to disease, pathogen abundance and pathogen virulence. Both moderate (RCP 4.5) and fossil fuel aggressive (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios are examined. We also compare projections for the onset of disease-conducive conditions and severe annual coral bleaching, and produce a disease risk summary that combines climate stress with stress caused by local human activities. There is great spatial variation in the projections, both among and within the major ocean basins, in conditions favouring disease development. Our results indicate that disease is as likely to cause coral mortality as bleaching in the coming decades. These projections identify priority locations to reduce stress caused by local human activities and test management interventions to reduce disease impacts.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2625

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