Tropical Pacific impacts on cooling North American winters

Michael Sigmond () and John C. Fyfe
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Michael Sigmond: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada
John C. Fyfe: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada

Nature Climate Change, 2016, vol. 6, issue 10, 970-974

Abstract: Abstract The North American continent generally experienced a cooling trend in winter over the early 2000s. This cooling trend represented a significant deviation from expected anthropogenic warming and so requires explanation. Previous studies indicate that climate variations in the tropical Pacific contributed to many mid-latitude climate variations over the early twenty-first century. Here we show using large ensembles of fully coupled, partially coupled and uncoupled model simulations that in northwest North America the winter cooling was primarily a remote response to climate fluctuations in the tropical Pacific. By contrast, in central North America the winter cooling appears to have resulted from a relatively rare fluctuation in mid-latitude circulation that was unrelated to the tropical Pacific. Our results highlight how decadal climate signals—both remote and local in origin—can together offset anthropogenic warming to produce continental-scale cooling.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3069

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