Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

Bing Liu, Senthold Asseng, Christoph Müller, Frank Ewert, Joshua Elliott, David B. Lobell, Pierre Martre, Alex C. Ruane, Daniel Wallach, James W. Jones, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Phillip D. Alderman, Jakarat Anothai, Bruno Basso, Christian Biernath, Davide Cammarano, Andy Challinor, Delphine Deryng, Giacomo De Sanctis, Jordi Doltra, Elias Fereres, Christian Folberth, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Sebastian Gayler, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Leslie A. Hunt, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Mohamed Jabloun, Curtis D. Jones, Kurt C. Kersebaum, Bruce A. Kimball, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Soora Naresh Kumar, Claas Nendel, Garry J. O’Leary, Jørgen E. Olesen, Michael J. Ottman, Taru Palosuo, P. V. Vara Prasad, Eckart Priesack, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Matthew Reynolds, Ehsan E. Rezaei, Reimund P. Rötter, Erwin Schmid, Mikhail A. Semenov, Iurii Shcherbak, Elke Stehfest, Claudio O. Stöckle, Pierre Stratonovitch, Thilo Streck, Iwan Supit, Fulu Tao, Peter Thorburn, Katharina Waha, Gerard W. Wall, Enli Wang, Jeffrey W. White, Joost Wolf, Zhigan Zhao and Yan Zhu ()
Additional contact information
Bing Liu: National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University
Senthold Asseng: University of Florida
Christoph Müller: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Frank Ewert: Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn
Joshua Elliott: Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research
David B. Lobell: Stanford University
Pierre Martre: UMR LEPSE, INRA
Alex C. Ruane: Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research
Daniel Wallach: INRA, UMR1248 Agrosystèmes et développement territorial (AGIR)
James W. Jones: University of Florida
Cynthia Rosenzweig: Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research
Pramod K. Aggarwal: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Borlaug Institute for South Asia, CIMMYT
Phillip D. Alderman: Oklahoma State University
Jakarat Anothai: Faculty of Natural Resources, Prince of Songkla University
Bruno Basso: Michigan State University East Lansing
Christian Biernath: Institute of Ecology, Helmholtz Zentrum München – German Research Center for Environmental Health
Davide Cammarano: The James Hutton Institute Invergowrie
Andy Challinor: Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds
Delphine Deryng: Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research
Giacomo De Sanctis: European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Jordi Doltra: Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre (CIFA)
Elias Fereres: University of Cordoba
Christian Folberth: University of Munich
Margarita Garcia-Vila: University of Cordoba
Sebastian Gayler: Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim
Gerrit Hoogenboom: University of Florida
Leslie A. Hunt: University of Guelph
Roberto C. Izaurralde: University of Maryland
Mohamed Jabloun: Aarhus University
Curtis D. Jones: University of Maryland
Kurt C. Kersebaum: Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
Bruce A. Kimball: USDA, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center
Ann-Kristin Koehler: Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds
Soora Naresh Kumar: Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute
Claas Nendel: Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
Garry J. O’Leary: Landscape & Water Sciences, Jobs, Transport and Resources
Jørgen E. Olesen: Aarhus University
Michael J. Ottman: The School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona
Taru Palosuo: Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)
P. V. Vara Prasad: Kansas State University
Eckart Priesack: Institute of Ecology, Helmholtz Zentrum München – German Research Center for Environmental Health
Thomas A. M. Pugh: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Matthew Reynolds: CIMMYT Int.
Ehsan E. Rezaei: Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn
Reimund P. Rötter: Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)
Erwin Schmid: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
Mikhail A. Semenov: Rothamsted Research
Iurii Shcherbak: Michigan State University East Lansing
Elke Stehfest: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Claudio O. Stöckle: Washington State University
Pierre Stratonovitch: Rothamsted Research
Thilo Streck: Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim
Iwan Supit: PPS, WSG and CALM, Wageningen University and Research
Fulu Tao: Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)
Peter Thorburn: CSIRO Agriculture & Food
Katharina Waha: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Gerard W. Wall: USDA, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center
Enli Wang: CSIRO Agriculture & Food
Jeffrey W. White: USDA, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center
Joost Wolf: PPS, WSG and CALM, Wageningen University and Research
Zhigan Zhao: CSIRO Agriculture & Food
Yan Zhu: National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University

Nature Climate Change, 2016, vol. 6, issue 12, 1130-1136

Abstract: Abstract The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3115

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