Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts

Nathalie Schaller (), Alison L. Kay, Rob Lamb, Neil R. Massey (), Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sarah N. Sparrow, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, Ian Ashpole, Andy Bowery, Susan M. Crooks, Karsten Haustein, Chris Huntingford, William J. Ingram, Richard G. Jones, Tim Legg, Jonathan Miller, Jessica Skeggs, David Wallom, Antje Weisheimer, Simon Wilson, Peter A. Stott and Myles R. Allen
Additional contact information
Nathalie Schaller: Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford
Alison L. Kay: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Rob Lamb: JBA Trust
Neil R. Massey: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh: Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut
Friederike E. L. Otto: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
Sarah N. Sparrow: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
Robert Vautard: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement & IPSL, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ
Pascal Yiou: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement & IPSL, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ
Ian Ashpole: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
Andy Bowery: Oxford e-Research Centre
Susan M. Crooks: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Karsten Haustein: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
Chris Huntingford: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
William J. Ingram: Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford
Richard G. Jones: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
Tim Legg: Met Office Hadley Centre
Jonathan Miller: Oxford e-Research Centre
Jessica Skeggs: JBA Risk Management Ltd
David Wallom: Oxford e-Research Centre
Antje Weisheimer: Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford
Simon Wilson: Met Office Hadley Centre
Peter A. Stott: Met Office Hadley Centre
Myles R. Allen: Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford

Nature Climate Change, 2016, vol. 6, issue 6, 627-634

Abstract: Abstract A succession of storms reaching southern England in the winter of 2013/2014 caused severe floods and £451 million insured losses. In a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that, as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, anthropogenic warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation. Hydrological modelling indicates this increased extreme 30-day-average Thames river flows, and slightly increased daily peak flows, consistent with the understanding of the catchment’s sensitivity to longer-duration precipitation and changes in the role of snowmelt. Consequently, flood risk mapping shows a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding, with a substantial range of uncertainty, demonstrating the importance of explicit modelling of impacts and relatively subtle changes in weather-related risks when quantifying present-day effects of human influence on climate.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2927

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