Greenhouse gas emission curves for advanced biofuel supply chains

Vassilis Daioglou (), Jonathan C. Doelman, Elke Stehfest, Christoph Müller, Birka Wicke, Andre Faaij and Detlef P. van Vuuren
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Vassilis Daioglou: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Jonathan C. Doelman: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Elke Stehfest: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Christoph Müller: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Birka Wicke: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University
Andre Faaij: Energy Sustainability Research Institute Groningen (ESRIG), University of Groningen
Detlef P. van Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Nature Climate Change, 2017, vol. 7, issue 12, 920-924

Abstract: Abstract Most climate change mitigation scenarios that are consistent with the 1.5–2 °C target rely on a large-scale contribution from biomass, including advanced (second-generation) biofuels. However, land-based biofuel production has been associated with substantial land-use change emissions. Previous studies show a wide range of emission factors, often hiding the influence of spatial heterogeneity. Here we introduce a spatially explicit method for assessing the supply of advanced biofuels at different emission factors and present the results as emission curves. Dedicated crops grown on grasslands, savannahs and abandoned agricultural lands could provide 30 EJBiofuel yr−1 with emission factors less than 40 kg of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) emissions per GJBiofuel (for an 85-year time horizon). This increases to 100 EJBiofuel yr−1 for emission factors less than 60 kgCO2e GJBiofuel −1. While these results are uncertain and depend on model assumptions (including time horizon, spatial resolution, technology assumptions and so on), emission curves improve our understanding of the relationship between biofuel supply and its potential contribution to climate change mitigation while accounting for spatial heterogeneity.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0006-8

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