Influence of high-latitude atmospheric circulation changes on summertime Arctic sea ice

Qinghua Ding (), Axel Schweiger, Michelle L’Heureux, David S. Battisti, Stephen Po-Chedley, Nathaniel C. Johnson, Eduardo Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Kirstin Harnos, Qin Zhang, Ryan Eastman and Eric J. Steig
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Qinghua Ding: University of California
Axel Schweiger: Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington
Michelle L’Heureux: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, College Park
David S. Battisti: University of Washington
Stephen Po-Chedley: University of Washington
Nathaniel C. Johnson: Cooperative Institute for Climate Science, Princeton University
Eduardo Blanchard-Wrigglesworth: University of Washington
Kirstin Harnos: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, College Park
Qin Zhang: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, College Park
Ryan Eastman: University of Washington
Eric J. Steig: University of Washington

Nature Climate Change, 2017, vol. 7, issue 4, 289-295

Abstract: Abstract The Arctic has seen rapid sea-ice decline in the past three decades, whilst warming at about twice the global average rate. Yet the relationship between Arctic warming and sea-ice loss is not well understood. Here, we present evidence that trends in summertime atmospheric circulation may have contributed as much as 60% to the September sea-ice extent decline since 1979. A tendency towards a stronger anticyclonic circulation over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean with a barotropic structure in the troposphere increased the downwelling longwave radiation above the ice by warming and moistening the lower troposphere. Model experiments, with reanalysis data constraining atmospheric circulation, replicate the observed thermodynamic response and indicate that the near-surface changes are dominated by circulation changes rather than feedbacks from the changing sea-ice cover. Internal variability dominates the Arctic summer circulation trend and may be responsible for about 30–50% of the overall decline in September sea ice since 1979.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3241

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