Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals

Andrew P. Schurer (), Michael E. Mann, Ed Hawkins, Simon F. B. Tett and Gabriele C. Hegerl
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Andrew P. Schurer: School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Crew Building
Michael E. Mann: Pennsylvania State University, State College
Ed Hawkins: NCAS-Climate, University of Reading
Simon F. B. Tett: School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Crew Building
Gabriele C. Hegerl: School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Crew Building

Nature Climate Change, 2017, vol. 7, issue 8, 563-567

Abstract: In order to meet internationally agreed temperature limits, it is important to have a defined baseline. This study shows for low-emission scenarios the likelihood and timing of exceedance are highly dependent on the baseline, as are allowable carbon emissions.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3345

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