Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization

Guojian Wang, Wenju Cai (), Bolan Gan, Lixin Wu (), Agus Santoso, Xiaopei Lin, Zhaohui Chen and Michael J. McPhaden
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Guojian Wang: Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Wenju Cai: Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Bolan Gan: Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Lixin Wu: Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Agus Santoso: Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Xiaopei Lin: Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Zhaohui Chen: Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Michael J. McPhaden: NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Nature Climate Change, 2017, vol. 7, issue 8, 568-572

Abstract: CMIP5 simulations reveal that the frequency of extreme El Niño events doubles under the 1.5 °C Paris target, and continues to increase long after global temperatures stabilize due to emission reductions. Extreme La Niña events, however, see little change at either 1.5 °C or 2 °C warming.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3351

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