Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

Adrian E. Raftery (), Alec Zimmer, Dargan M. W. Frierson, Richard Startz and Peiran Liu
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Adrian E. Raftery: University of Washington
Alec Zimmer: Upstart
Dargan M. W. Frierson: University of Washington
Peiran Liu: University of Washington

Nature Climate Change, 2017, vol. 7, issue 9, 637-641

Abstract: Using a fully statistical approach, the paper shows that the most likely range of cumulative CO2 emissions includes the IPCC’s two middle scenarios but not the extreme ones. Carbon intensity reduction should accelerate to achieve the 1.5 °C warming target.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3352

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