Differential vulnerability to climate change yields novel deep-reef communities

Martin Pierre Marzloff (), Eric C. J. Oliver, Neville S. Barrett, Neil J. Holbrook, Lainey James, Simon J. Wotherspoon and Craig R. Johnson
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Martin Pierre Marzloff: University of Tasmania
Eric C. J. Oliver: University of Tasmania
Neville S. Barrett: University of Tasmania
Neil J. Holbrook: University of Tasmania
Lainey James: University of Tasmania
Simon J. Wotherspoon: University of Tasmania
Craig R. Johnson: University of Tasmania

Nature Climate Change, 2018, vol. 8, issue 10, 873-878

Abstract: Abstract The effects of climate-driven ocean change on reef habitat-forming species are diverse1,2 and can be deleterious to the structure and functioning of seafloor communities3–5. Although responses of shallow coral- or seaweed-based reef communities to environmental changes are a focus of ecological research in the coastal zone1,4–6, the ecology of habitat-forming organisms on deeper mesophotic reefs remains poorly known. These reefs are typically highly biodiverse7,8 and productive as a result of massive nutrient recycling9. Based on seafloor imagery obtained from an autonomous underwater vehicle8, we related change in community composition on deep reefs (30–90 m) across a latitudinal gradient (25–45° S) in southeastern Australia to high-resolution environmental and oceanographic data, and predicted future changes using downscaled climate change projections for the 2060s10–12. This region is recognized as a global hotspot for ocean warming13. The models show an overall tropicalization trend in these deep temperate reef communities, but different functional groups associate differentially to environmental drivers and display a diversity of responses to projected ocean change. We predict the emergence of novel deep-reef assemblages by the 2060s that have no counterpart on reefs today, which is likely to underpin shifts in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0278-7

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