Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks

Giacomo Grassi (), Jo House, Werner A. Kurz, Alessandro Cescatti, Richard A. Houghton, Glen Peters, Maria J. Sanz, Raul Abad Viñas, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Alberte Bondeau, Frank Dentener, Marianela Fader, Sandro Federici, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Charles D. Koven, Donna Lee, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Alexander A. Nassikas, Lucia Perugini, Simone Rossi, Stephen Sitch, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire and Sönke Zaehle
Additional contact information
Giacomo Grassi: European Commission
Jo House: University of Bristol
Werner A. Kurz: Canadian Forest Service
Alessandro Cescatti: European Commission
Richard A. Houghton: Woods Hole Research Centre (WHRC)
Maria J. Sanz: Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)
Raul Abad Viñas: European Commission
Ramdane Alkama: European Commission
Almut Arneth: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Alberte Bondeau: Avignon University
Frank Dentener: European Commission
Marianela Fader: German Federal Institute of Hydrology
Sandro Federici: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
Pierre Friedlingstein: University of Exeter
Atul K. Jain: University of Illinois
Etsushi Kato: Institute of Applied Energy (IAE)
Charles D. Koven: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Donna Lee: Climate and Land Use Alliance
Julia E. M. S. Nabel: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Alexander A. Nassikas: Woods Hole Research Centre (WHRC)
Lucia Perugini: Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC)
Simone Rossi: European Commission
Stephen Sitch: University of Exeter
Nicolas Viovy: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers
Andy Wiltshire: Met Office Hadley Centre
Sönke Zaehle: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry

Nature Climate Change, 2018, vol. 8, issue 10, 914-920

Abstract: Abstract Achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement requires forest-based mitigation. Collective progress towards this goal will be assessed by the Paris Agreement’s Global stocktake. At present, there is a discrepancy of about 4 GtCO2 yr−1 in global anthropogenic net land-use emissions between global models (reflected in IPCC assessment reports) and aggregated national GHG inventories (under the UNFCCC). We show that a substantial part of this discrepancy (about 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1) can be explained by conceptual differences in anthropogenic forest sink estimation, related to the representation of environmental change impacts and the areas considered as managed. For a more credible tracking of collective progress under the Global stocktake, these conceptual differences between models and inventories need to be reconciled. We implement a new method of disaggregation of global land model results that allows greater comparability with GHG inventories. This provides a deeper understanding of model–inventory differences, allowing more transparent analysis of forest-based mitigation and facilitating a more accurate Global stocktake.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0283-x

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