The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming

Frank Pattyn (), Catherine Ritz, Edward Hanna, Xylar Asay-Davis, Rob DeConto, Gaël Durand, Lionel Favier, Xavier Fettweis, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Alexander Robinson, Hélène Seroussi, Luke D. Trusel and Michiel van den Broeke
Additional contact information
Frank Pattyn: Université libre de Bruxelles
Catherine Ritz: Université Grenoble-Alpes/CNRS
Edward Hanna: University of Lincoln
Xylar Asay-Davis: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Rob DeConto: University of Massachusetts
Gaël Durand: Université Grenoble-Alpes/CNRS
Lionel Favier: Université libre de Bruxelles
Xavier Fettweis: Université de Liège
Heiko Goelzer: Université libre de Bruxelles
Nicholas R. Golledge: Victoria University of Wellington
Peter Kuipers Munneke: Utrecht University
Jan T. M. Lenaerts: University of Colorado
Sophie Nowicki: NASA/GSFC
Antony J. Payne: University of Bristol
Alexander Robinson: Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Hélène Seroussi: California Institute of Technology
Luke D. Trusel: Rowan University
Michiel van den Broeke: Utrecht University

Nature Climate Change, 2018, vol. 8, issue 12, 1053-1061

Abstract: Abstract Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5–2.0 °C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance–elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8

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