Contrasting responses of autumn-leaf senescence to daytime and night-time warming

Chaoyang Wu (), Xiaoyue Wang, Huanjiong Wang (), Philippe Ciais, Josep Peñuelas, Ranga B. Myneni, Ankur R. Desai, Christopher M. Gough, Alemu Gonsamo, Andrew T. Black, Rachhpal S. Jassal, Weimin Ju, Wenping Yuan, Yongshuo Fu, Miaogen Shen, Shihua Li, Ronggao Liu, Jing M. Chen and Quansheng Ge ()
Additional contact information
Chaoyang Wu: Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xiaoyue Wang: Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Huanjiong Wang: Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Philippe Ciais: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL-LSCE CEA CNRS UVSQ
Josep Peñuelas: CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB
Ranga B. Myneni: Boston University
Ankur R. Desai: University of Wisconsin–Madison
Christopher M. Gough: Virginia Commonwealth University
Alemu Gonsamo: University of Toronto
Andrew T. Black: University of British Columbia
Rachhpal S. Jassal: University of British Columbia
Weimin Ju: Nanjing University
Wenping Yuan: Sun Yat-Sen University
Yongshuo Fu: Beijing Normal University
Miaogen Shen: CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences
Shihua Li: University of Electronic Science and Technology of China
Ronggao Liu: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS
Jing M. Chen: University of Toronto
Quansheng Ge: Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Climate Change, 2018, vol. 8, issue 12, 1092-1096

Abstract: Abstract Plant phenology is a sensitive indicator of climate change1–4 and plays an important role in regulating carbon uptake by plants5–7. Previous studies have focused on spring leaf-out by daytime temperature and the onset of snow-melt time8,9, but the drivers controlling leaf senescence date (LSD) in autumn remain largely unknown10–12. Using long-term ground phenological records (14,536 time series since the 1900s) and satellite greenness observations dating back to the 1980s, we show that rising pre-season maximum daytime (Tday) and minimum night-time (Tnight) temperatures had contrasting effects on the timing of autumn LSD in the Northern Hemisphere (> 20° N). If higher Tday leads to an earlier or later LSD, an increase in Tnight systematically drives LSD to occur oppositely. Contrasting impacts of daytime and night-time warming on drought stress may be the underlying mechanism. Our LSD model considering these opposite effects improved autumn phenology modelling and predicted an overall earlier autumn LSD by the end of this century compared with traditional projections. These results challenge the notion of prolonged growth under higher autumn temperatures, suggesting instead that leaf senescence in the Northern Hemisphere will begin earlier than currently expected, causing a positive climate feedback.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0346-z

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