Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

Brian Beckage (), Louis J. Gross, Katherine Lacasse, Eric Carr, Sara S. Metcalf, Jonathan M. Winter, Peter D. Howe, Nina Fefferman, Travis Franck, Asim Zia, Ann Kinzig and Forrest M. Hoffman
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Brian Beckage: University of Vermont
Louis J. Gross: University of Tennessee
Katherine Lacasse: Rhode Island College
Eric Carr: University of Tennessee
Sara S. Metcalf: The State University of New York at Buffalo
Jonathan M. Winter: Dartmouth College
Peter D. Howe: Utah State University
Nina Fefferman: University of Tennessee
Travis Franck: Climate Interactive
Asim Zia: University of Vermont
Ann Kinzig: Arizona State University
Forrest M. Hoffman: Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Nature Climate Change, 2018, vol. 8, issue 1, 79-84

Abstract: Abstract Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0031-7

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