Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem

Robin Cristofari, Xiaoming Liu, Francesco Bonadonna, Yves Cherel, Pierre Pistorius, Yvon Le Maho, Virginie Raybaud, Nils Christian Stenseth, Céline Le Bohec () and Emiliano Trucchi ()
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Robin Cristofari: Université de Strasbourg, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Pluridisciplinaire Hubert Curien (IPHC)
Xiaoming Liu: University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston
Francesco Bonadonna: CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier, EPHE
Yves Cherel: CNRS-Université de La Rochelle
Pierre Pistorius: Nelson Mandela University
Yvon Le Maho: Université de Strasbourg, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Pluridisciplinaire Hubert Curien (IPHC)
Virginie Raybaud: Centre Scientifique de Monaco (CSM)
Nils Christian Stenseth: Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo
Céline Le Bohec: Université de Strasbourg, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Pluridisciplinaire Hubert Curien (IPHC)
Emiliano Trucchi: Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo

Nature Climate Change, 2018, vol. 8, issue 3, 245-251

Abstract: Abstract Range shift is the primary short-term species response to rapid climate change, but it is often hampered by natural or anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. Different critical areas of a species’ niche may be exposed to heterogeneous environmental changes and modelling species response under such complex spatial and ecological scenarios presents well-known challenges. Here, we use a biophysical ecological niche model validated through population genomics and palaeodemography to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia of the king penguin in the Southern Ocean. Integrating genomic and demographic data at the whole-species level with specific biophysical constraints, we present a refined framework for predicting the effect of climate change on species relying on spatially and ecologically distinct areas to complete their life cycle (for example, migratory animals, marine pelagic organisms and central-place foragers) and, in general, on species living in fragmented ecosystems.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0084-2

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