Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

J. C. J. H. Aerts (), Wouter Botzen, K. C. Clarke, S. L. Cutter, J. W. Hall, B. Merz, E. Michel-Kerjan, J. Mysiak, S. Surminski and H. Kunreuther
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J. C. J. H. Aerts: VU University Amsterdam
K. C. Clarke: University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB)
S. L. Cutter: University of South Carolina
J. W. Hall: University of Oxford
B. Merz: German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ)
E. Michel-Kerjan: University of Pennsylvania
J. Mysiak: Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
S. Surminski: London School of Economics (LSE)
H. Kunreuther: University of Pennsylvania

Nature Climate Change, 2018, vol. 8, issue 3, 193-199

Abstract: Abstract The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0085-1

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