Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Joeri Rogelj (), Alexander Popp, Katherine V. Calvin, Gunnar Luderer, Johannes Emmerling, David Gernaat, Shinichiro Fujimori, Jessica Strefler, Tomoko Hasegawa, Giacomo Marangoni, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Jonathan Doelman, Laurent Drouet, Jae Edmonds, Oliver Fricko, Mathijs Harmsen, Peter Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Elke Stehfest and Massimo Tavoni
Additional contact information
Joeri Rogelj: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Alexander Popp: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Katherine V. Calvin: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Gunnar Luderer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
David Gernaat: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Shinichiro Fujimori: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Jessica Strefler: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Tomoko Hasegawa: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Giacomo Marangoni: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
Volker Krey: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Elmar Kriegler: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Detlef P. van Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Jonathan Doelman: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Jae Edmonds: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Oliver Fricko: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Mathijs Harmsen: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Florian Humpenöder: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Elke Stehfest: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Massimo Tavoni: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Nature Climate Change, 2018, vol. 8, issue 4, 325-332

Abstract: Abstract The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3

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