Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions

Drew Shindell (), Greg Faluvegi, Karl Seltzer and Cary Shindell
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Drew Shindell: Duke University
Greg Faluvegi: Columbia University and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Karl Seltzer: Duke University
Cary Shindell: Duke University

Nature Climate Change, 2018, vol. 8, issue 4, 291-295

Abstract: Abstract Societal risks increase as Earth warms, and increase further for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate, even if they lead to identical warming as trajectories with reduced near-term emissions 1 . Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations 2 . A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits3,4. However, 2 °C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5 °C trajectories require elimination of most fossil-fuel-related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing 21st-century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC, an amount that would shift a ‘standard’ 2 °C scenario to 1.5 °C or could achieve 2 °C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153 ± 43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with ~40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and >200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0108-y

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