Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds

Katharine Keogan (), Francis Daunt, Sarah Wanless, Richard A. Phillips, Craig A. Walling, Philippa Agnew, David G. Ainley, Tycho Anker-Nilssen, Grant Ballard, Robert T. Barrett, Kerry J. Barton, Claus Bech, Peter Becker, Per-Arvid Berglund, Loïc Bollache, Alexander L. Bond, Sandra Bouwhuis, Russell W. Bradley, Zofia M. Burr, Kees Camphuysen, Paulo Catry, Andre Chiaradia, Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard, Richard Cuthbert, Nina Dehnhard, Sébastien Descamps, Tony Diamond, George Divoky, Hugh Drummond, Katie M. Dugger, Michael J. Dunn, Louise Emmerson, Kjell Einar Erikstad, Jérôme Fort, William Fraser, Meritxell Genovart, Olivier Gilg, Jacob González-Solís, José Pedro Granadeiro, David Grémillet, Jannik Hansen, Sveinn A. Hanssen, Mike Harris, April Hedd, Jefferson Hinke, José Manuel Igual, Jaime Jahncke, Ian Jones, Peter J. Kappes, Johannes Lang, Magdalene Langset, Amélie Lescroël, Svein-Håkon Lorentsen, Phil O’B. Lyver, Mark Mallory, Børge Moe, William A. Montevecchi, David Monticelli, Carolyn Mostello, Mark Newell, Lisa Nicholson, Ian Nisbet, Olof Olsson, Daniel Oro, Vivian Pattison, Maud Poisbleau, Tanya Pyk, Flavio Quintana, Jaime A. Ramos, Raül Ramos, Tone Kirstin Reiertsen, Cristina Rodríguez, Peter Ryan, Ana Sanz-Aguilar, Niels M. Schmidt, Paula Shannon, Benoit Sittler, Colin Southwell, Christopher Surman, Walter S. Svagelj, Wayne Trivelpiece, Pete Warzybok, Yutaka Watanuki, Henri Weimerskirch, Peter R. Wilson, Andrew G. Wood, Albert B. Phillimore () and Sue Lewis ()
Additional contact information
Katharine Keogan: University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories
Francis Daunt: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate
Sarah Wanless: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate
Richard A. Phillips: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross
Craig A. Walling: University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories
Philippa Agnew: Oamaru Blue Penguin Colony
David G. Ainley: HT Harvey and Associates
Tycho Anker-Nilssen: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
Grant Ballard: Point Blue Conservation Science
Robert T. Barrett: Tromsø University Museum
Kerry J. Barton: Landcare Research
Claus Bech: Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Peter Becker: Institute of Avian Research
Per-Arvid Berglund: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Loïc Bollache: Groupe de Recherche en Ecologie Arctique
Alexander L. Bond: RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge
Sandra Bouwhuis: Institute of Avian Research
Russell W. Bradley: Point Blue Conservation Science
Zofia M. Burr: The University Centre in Svalbard
Kees Camphuysen: Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research Den Burg, Texel & Utrecht University
Paulo Catry: MARE – Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, ISPA – Instituto Universitário
Andre Chiaradia: Phillip Island Nature Parks
Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
Richard Cuthbert: RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge
Nina Dehnhard: University of Antwerp,
Sébastien Descamps: Norwegian Polar Institute (FRAM), High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment
Tony Diamond: University of New Brunswick
George Divoky: Friends of Cooper Island
Hugh Drummond: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Katie M. Dugger: US Geological Survey, Oregon Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit Department of Fisheries and Wildlife
Michael J. Dunn: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross
Louise Emmerson: Australian Antarctic Division
Kjell Einar Erikstad: Norwegian Polar Institute (FRAM), High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment
Jérôme Fort: Littoral Environnement et Sociétés (LIENSs), UMR 7266, CNRS – Université de La Rochelle
William Fraser: Polar Oceans Research Group
Meritxell Genovart: Population Ecology Group, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB)
Olivier Gilg: Groupe de Recherche en Ecologie Arctique
Jacob González-Solís: Universitat de Barcelona
José Pedro Granadeiro: Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande
David Grémillet: Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, UMR 5175, CNRS – Université de Montpellier – Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier – EPHE
Jannik Hansen: Aarhus University
Sveinn A. Hanssen: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
Mike Harris: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate
April Hedd: Wildlife Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada
Jefferson Hinke: Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
José Manuel Igual: Population Ecology Group, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB)
Jaime Jahncke: Point Blue Conservation Science
Ian Jones: Memorial University
Peter J. Kappes: Oregon Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife
Johannes Lang: Groupe de Recherche en Ecologie Arctique
Magdalene Langset: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
Amélie Lescroël: Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, UMR 5175, CNRS – Université de Montpellier – Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier – EPHE
Svein-Håkon Lorentsen: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
Phil O’B. Lyver: Landcare Research
Mark Mallory: Biology, Acadia University
Børge Moe: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
William A. Montevecchi: Memorial University of Newfoundland
David Monticelli: University of Coimbra
Carolyn Mostello: Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife
Mark Newell: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate
Lisa Nicholson: Halfmoon Biosciences
Ian Nisbet: I. C. T. Nisbet & Company
Olof Olsson: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University
Daniel Oro: Population Ecology Group, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB)
Vivian Pattison: Laskeek Bay Conservation Society
Maud Poisbleau: University of Antwerp,
Tanya Pyk: Deakin University
Flavio Quintana: Instituto de Biología de Organismos Marinos (IBIOMAR-CONICET)
Jaime A. Ramos: University of Coimbra
Raül Ramos: Universitat de Barcelona
Tone Kirstin Reiertsen: Norwegian Polar Institute (FRAM), High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment
Cristina Rodríguez: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Peter Ryan: University of Cape Town
Ana Sanz-Aguilar: Population Ecology Group, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB)
Niels M. Schmidt: Aarhus University
Paula Shannon: National Audubon Society Seabird Restoration Program
Benoit Sittler: Groupe de Recherche en Ecologie Arctique
Colin Southwell: Australian Antarctic Division
Christopher Surman: Halfmoon Biosciences
Walter S. Svagelj: Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata-CONICET
Wayne Trivelpiece: 5959 Shoreline Highway
Pete Warzybok: Point Blue Conservation Science
Yutaka Watanuki: Hokkaido University
Henri Weimerskirch: CEBC, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Peter R. Wilson: Landcare Research, Tamaki Campus
Andrew G. Wood: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross
Albert B. Phillimore: University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories
Sue Lewis: University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories

Nature Climate Change, 2018, vol. 8, issue 4, 313-318

Abstract: Abstract Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity 1 , and is often sensitive to climatic conditions 2 . Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey 3 . This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers 4 . However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction 5 . Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (−0.020 days yr−1) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (−0.272 days °C−1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources 2 .

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0115-z

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