Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land

Gabriel J. Kooperman (), Yang Chen, Forrest M. Hoffman, Charles D. Koven, Keith Lindsay, Michael S. Pritchard, Abigail L. S. Swann and James T. Randerson
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Gabriel J. Kooperman: University of California, Irvine
Yang Chen: University of California, Irvine
Forrest M. Hoffman: Computational Earth Sciences Group and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Charles D. Koven: Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Keith Lindsay: Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Michael S. Pritchard: University of California, Irvine
Abigail L. S. Swann: University of Washington
James T. Randerson: University of California, Irvine

Nature Climate Change, 2018, vol. 8, issue 5, 434-440

Abstract: Abstract Understanding how anthropogenic CO2 emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO2 is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO2 increases are isolated over individual continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO2 than Asian or African forests.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0144-7

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