Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways

Gunnar Luderer (), Zoi Vrontisi, Christoph Bertram, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Robert C. Pietzcker, Joeri Rogelj, Harmen Sytze Boer, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Peter Havlik, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Alban Kitous, Michaja Pehl, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Bert Saveyn, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef P. Vuuren and Elmar Kriegler
Additional contact information
Gunnar Luderer: Member of the Leibniz Association
Zoi Vrontisi: Edificio Expo
Christoph Bertram: Member of the Leibniz Association
Oreane Y. Edelenbosch: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Robert C. Pietzcker: Member of the Leibniz Association
Joeri Rogelj: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Harmen Sytze Boer: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Oliver Fricko: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Shinichiro Fujimori: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Gokul Iyer: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Alban Kitous: Edificio Expo
Michaja Pehl: Member of the Leibniz Association
Volker Krey: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Massimo Tavoni: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
Detlef P. Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Elmar Kriegler: Member of the Leibniz Association

Nature Climate Change, 2018, vol. 8, issue 7, 626-633

Abstract: Abstract The Paris Agreement—which is aimed at holding global warming well below 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit it below 1.5 °C—has initiated a bottom-up process of iteratively updating nationally determined contributions to reach these long-term goals. Achieving these goals implies a tight limit on cumulative net CO2 emissions, of which residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are the greatest impediment. Here, using an ensemble of seven integrated assessment models (IAMs), we explore the determinants of these residual emissions, focusing on sector-level contributions. Even when strengthened pre-2030 mitigation action is combined with very stringent long-term policies, cumulative residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels remain at 850–1,150 GtCO2 during 2016–2100, despite carbon prices of US$130–420 per tCO2 by 2030. Thus, 640–950 GtCO2 removal is required for a likely chance of limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C. In the absence of strengthened pre-2030 pledges, long-term CO2 commitments are increased by 160–330 GtCO2, further jeopardizing achievement of the 1.5 °C goal and increasing dependence on CO2 removal.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0198-6

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