Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy

Tomoko Hasegawa (), Shinichiro Fujimori, Peter Havlik, Hugo Valin, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan C. Doelman, Thomas Fellmann, Page Kyle, Jason F. L. Koopman, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Yuki Ochi, Ignacio Pérez Domínguez, Elke Stehfest, Timothy Sulser, Andrzej Tabeau, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Jun’ya Takakura, Hans Meijl, Willem-Jan Zeist, Keith Wiebe and Peter Witzke
Additional contact information
Tomoko Hasegawa: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Shinichiro Fujimori: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Hugo Valin: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Jonathan C. Doelman: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Page Kyle: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Jason F. L. Koopman: Wageningen University and Research
Hermann Lotze-Campen: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Daniel Mason-D’Croz: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Yuki Ochi: E-Konzal Co. Ltd
Ignacio Pérez Domínguez: European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Elke Stehfest: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Andrzej Tabeau: Wageningen University and Research
Kiyoshi Takahashi: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Jun’ya Takakura: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Hans Meijl: Wageningen University and Research
Willem-Jan Zeist: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Keith Wiebe: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Peter Witzke: University of Bonn
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Daniel Mason-D'Croz

Nature Climate Change, 2018, vol. 8, issue 8, 699-703

Abstract: Abstract Food insecurity can be directly exacerbated by climate change due to crop-production-related impacts of warmer and drier conditions that are expected in important agricultural regions1–3. However, efforts to mitigate climate change through comprehensive, economy-wide GHG emissions reductions may also negatively affect food security, due to indirect impacts on prices and supplies of key agricultural commodities4–6. Here we conduct a multiple model assessment on the combined effects of climate change and climate mitigation efforts on agricultural commodity prices, dietary energy availability and the population at risk of hunger. A robust finding is that by 2050, stringent climate mitigation policy, if implemented evenly across all sectors and regions, would have a greater negative impact on global hunger and food consumption than the direct impacts of climate change. The negative impacts would be most prevalent in vulnerable, low-income regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where food security problems are already acute.

Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (51)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0230-x

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