Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways

Jun’ya Takakura (), Shinichiro Fujimori, Naota Hanasaki, Tomoko Hasegawa, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Yasushi Honda, Toshichika Iizumi, Naoko Kumano, Chan Park, Zhihong Shen, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Makoto Tamura, Masahiro Tanoue, Koujiro Tsuchida, Hiromune Yokoki, Qian Zhou, Taikan Oki and Yasuaki Hijioka
Additional contact information
Jun’ya Takakura: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Shinichiro Fujimori: Kyoto University
Naota Hanasaki: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Tomoko Hasegawa: Ritsumeikan University
Yukiko Hirabayashi: Shibaura Institute of Technology
Yasushi Honda: University of Tsukuba
Toshichika Iizumi: National Agriculture and Food Research Organization
Naoko Kumano: Ehime University
Chan Park: University of Seoul
Zhihong Shen: National Agriculture and Food Research Organization
Kiyoshi Takahashi: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Makoto Tamura: Ibaraki University
Masahiro Tanoue: Shibaura Institute of Technology
Koujiro Tsuchida: Nippon Koei
Hiromune Yokoki: Ibaraki University
Qian Zhou: North China Electric Power University
Taikan Oki: The University of Tokyo
Yasuaki Hijioka: National Institute for Environmental Studies

Nature Climate Change, 2019, vol. 9, issue 10, 737-741

Abstract: Abstract There are great uncertainties in the projected economic impacts of climate change1, arising from uncertainties in the climate response2, the climate change mitigation pathway3 and the socioeconomic development pathway4. Although the relative contributions of these factors are important for climate change related decision-making, they are poorly understood. Here, we show to what extent the projected economic impacts of climate change can be attributed to these three factors. Our modelling framework consisting of global, multisectoral impact models coupled with an integrated assessment model enables us to estimate the global total economic impacts of climate change while incorporating these uncertainty sources. Whereas the most pessimistic pathway without mitigation would result in a net economic impact equivalent to 6.6% (3.9–8.6%) of global gross domestic product at the end of this century, the pathways with stringent mitigation would limit the impact to around or less than 1%. Although the uncertainties are great, the climate change mitigation pathway is the dominant factor and socioeconomic developments can also contribute to alleviate the impacts of climate change. These results suggest that decisions on mitigation and development have a great influence in determining the economic impacts of climate change, regardless of the uncertainties in the climate response.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0578-6

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