Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

Susan M. Natali (), Jennifer D. Watts, Brendan M. Rogers, Stefano Potter, Sarah M. Ludwig, Anne-Katrin Selbmann, Patrick F. Sullivan, Benjamin W. Abbott, Kyle A. Arndt, Leah Birch, Mats P. Björkman, A. Anthony Bloom, Gerardo Celis, Torben R. Christensen, Casper T. Christiansen, Roisin Commane, Elisabeth J. Cooper, Patrick Crill, Claudia Czimczik, Sergey Davydov, Jinyang Du, Jocelyn E. Egan, Bo Elberling, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Thomas Friborg, Hélène Genet, Mathias Göckede, Jordan P. Goodrich, Paul Grogan, Manuel Helbig, Elchin E. Jafarov, Julie D. Jastrow, Aram A. M. Kalhori, Yongwon Kim, John S. Kimball, Lars Kutzbach, Mark J. Lara, Klaus S. Larsen, Bang-Yong Lee, Zhihua Liu, Michael M. Loranty, Magnus Lund, Massimo Lupascu, Nima Madani, Avni Malhotra, Roser Matamala, Jack McFarland, A. David McGuire, Anders Michelsen, Christina Minions, Walter C. Oechel, David Olefeldt, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Norbert Pirk, Ben Poulter, William Quinton, Fereidoun Rezanezhad, David Risk, Torsten Sachs, Kevin Schaefer, Niels M. Schmidt, Edward A. G. Schuur, Philipp R. Semenchuk, Gaius Shaver, Oliver Sonnentag, Gregory Starr, Claire C. Treat, Mark P. Waldrop, Yihui Wang, Jeffrey Welker, Christian Wille, Xiaofeng Xu, Zhen Zhang, Qianlai Zhuang and Donatella Zona
Additional contact information
Susan M. Natali: Woods Hole Research Center
Jennifer D. Watts: Woods Hole Research Center
Brendan M. Rogers: Woods Hole Research Center
Stefano Potter: Woods Hole Research Center
Sarah M. Ludwig: Woods Hole Research Center
Anne-Katrin Selbmann: University of Bayreuth
Patrick F. Sullivan: University of Alaska
Benjamin W. Abbott: Brigham Young University
Kyle A. Arndt: San Diego State University
Leah Birch: Woods Hole Research Center
Mats P. Björkman: University of Gothenburg
A. Anthony Bloom: California Institute of Technology
Gerardo Celis: Northern Arizona University
Torben R. Christensen: Aarhus University
Casper T. Christiansen: Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Roisin Commane: Columbia University
Elisabeth J. Cooper: UiT The Arctic University of Norway
Patrick Crill: Stockholm University
Claudia Czimczik: University of California
Sergey Davydov: Northeast Science Station, Pacific Geographical Institute
Jinyang Du: W.A. Franke College of Forestry & Conservation, University of Montana
Jocelyn E. Egan: Dalhousie University
Bo Elberling: University of Copenhagen
Eugenie S. Euskirchen: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Thomas Friborg: University of Copenhagen
Hélène Genet: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Mathias Göckede: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Jordan P. Goodrich: San Diego State University
Paul Grogan: Queen’s University
Manuel Helbig: McMaster University
Elchin E. Jafarov: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Julie D. Jastrow: Argonne National Laboratory
Aram A. M. Kalhori: San Diego State University
Yongwon Kim: University of Alaska Fairbanks
John S. Kimball: W.A. Franke College of Forestry & Conservation, University of Montana
Lars Kutzbach: Institute of Soil Science, University of Hamburg
Mark J. Lara: University of Illinois
Klaus S. Larsen: University of Copenhagen
Bang-Yong Lee: Korea Polar Research Institute
Zhihua Liu: Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Michael M. Loranty: Colgate University
Magnus Lund: Aarhus University
Massimo Lupascu: National University of Singapore
Nima Madani: California Institute of Technology
Avni Malhotra: Stanford University
Roser Matamala: Argonne National Laboratory
Jack McFarland: US Geological Survey
A. David McGuire: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Anders Michelsen: University of Copenhagen
Christina Minions: Woods Hole Research Center
Walter C. Oechel: San Diego State University
David Olefeldt: University of Alberta
Frans-Jan W. Parmentier: University of Oslo
Norbert Pirk: University of Oslo
Ben Poulter: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
William Quinton: Wilfrid Laurier University
Fereidoun Rezanezhad: University of Waterloo
David Risk: St. Francis Xavier University
Torsten Sachs: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg
Kevin Schaefer: University of Colorado
Niels M. Schmidt: Aarhus University
Edward A. G. Schuur: Northern Arizona University
Philipp R. Semenchuk: University of Vienna
Gaius Shaver: The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory
Oliver Sonnentag: University of Montreal
Gregory Starr: University of Alabama
Claire C. Treat: University of Eastern Finland
Mark P. Waldrop: US Geological Survey
Yihui Wang: San Diego State University
Jeffrey Welker: University of Alaska Anchorage
Christian Wille: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg
Xiaofeng Xu: San Diego State University
Zhen Zhang: University of Maryland
Qianlai Zhuang: Purdue University
Donatella Zona: San Diego State University

Nature Climate Change, 2019, vol. 9, issue 11, 852-857

Abstract: Abstract Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1–3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8

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