Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Veronika Eyring (), Peter M. Cox, Gregory M. Flato, Peter J. Gleckler, Gab Abramowitz, Peter Caldwell, William D. Collins, Bettina K. Gier, Alex D. Hall, Forrest M. Hoffman, George C. Hurtt, Alexandra Jahn, Chris D. Jones, Stephen A. Klein, John P. Krasting, Lester Kwiatkowski, Ruth Lorenz, Eric Maloney, Gerald A. Meehl, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Robert Pincus, Alex C. Ruane, Joellen L. Russell, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Benjamin D. Santer, Steven C. Sherwood, Isla R. Simpson, Ronald J. Stouffer and Mark S. Williamson
Additional contact information
Veronika Eyring: Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre
Peter M. Cox: University of Exeter
Gregory M. Flato: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada
Peter J. Gleckler: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Gab Abramowitz: University of New South Wales
Peter Caldwell: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
William D. Collins: Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Bettina K. Gier: Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre
Alex D. Hall: University of California
Forrest M. Hoffman: Computational Earth Sciences Group and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
George C. Hurtt: University of Maryland
Alexandra Jahn: University of Colorado
Chris D. Jones: Met Office Hadley Centre
Stephen A. Klein: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
John P. Krasting: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA
Lester Kwiatkowski: Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), IPSL
Ruth Lorenz: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
Eric Maloney: University of Colorado
Gerald A. Meehl: National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Angeline G. Pendergrass: National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Robert Pincus: University of Colorado
Alex C. Ruane: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Joellen L. Russell: University of Arizona
Benjamin M. Sanderson: National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Benjamin D. Santer: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Steven C. Sherwood: University of New South Wales
Isla R. Simpson: National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Ronald J. Stouffer: University of Arizona
Mark S. Williamson: University of Exeter

Nature Climate Change, 2019, vol. 9, issue 2, 102-110

Abstract: Abstract Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y

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