Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate

Yochanan Kushnir (), Adam A. Scaife (), Raymond Arritt, Gianpaolo Balsamo, George Boer, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Ed Hawkins, Masahide Kimoto, Rupa Kumar Kolli, Arun Kumar, Daniela Matei, Katja Matthes, Wolfgang A. Müller, Terence O’Kane, Judith Perlwitz, Scott Power, Marilyn Raphael, Akihiko Shimpo, Doug Smith, Matthias Tuma and Bo Wu
Additional contact information
Yochanan Kushnir: Columbia University
Adam A. Scaife: Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Raymond Arritt: Iowa State University
Gianpaolo Balsamo: European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts
George Boer: Environment Canada and Climate Change
Francisco Doblas-Reyes: Pg. Lluis Companys
Ed Hawkins: University of Reading
Masahide Kimoto: University of Tokyo
Rupa Kumar Kolli: World Meteorological Organization
Arun Kumar: Climate Prediction Center
Daniela Matei: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Katja Matthes: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Wolfgang A. Müller: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Terence O’Kane: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Judith Perlwitz: University of Colorado
Scott Power: Bureau of Meteorology
Marilyn Raphael: University of California, Los Angeles
Akihiko Shimpo: Japan Meteorological Agency
Doug Smith: Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Matthias Tuma: WCRP/WMO
Bo Wu: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Climate Change, 2019, vol. 9, issue 2, 94-101

Abstract: Abstract Near-term climate predictions — which operate on annual to decadal timescales — offer benefits for climate adaptation and resilience, and are thus important for society. Although skilful near-term predictions are now possible, particularly when coupled models are initialized from the current climate state (most importantly from the ocean), several scientific challenges remain, including gaps in understanding and modelling the underlying physical mechanisms. This Perspective discusses how these challenges can be overcome, outlining concrete steps towards the provision of operational near-term climate predictions. Progress in this endeavour will bridge the gap between current seasonal forecasts and century-scale climate change projections, allowing a seamless climate service delivery chain to be established.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7

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