Widespread loss of lake ice around the Northern Hemisphere in a warming world

Sapna Sharma (), Kevin Blagrave, John J. Magnuson, Catherine M. O’Reilly, Samantha Oliver, Ryan D. Batt, Madeline R. Magee, Dietmar Straile, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Luke Winslow and R. Iestyn Woolway
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Sapna Sharma: York University
Kevin Blagrave: York University
John J. Magnuson: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Catherine M. O’Reilly: Illinois State University
Samantha Oliver: United States Geological Survey
Ryan D. Batt: Rutgers University
Madeline R. Magee: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Dietmar Straile: University of Konstanz
Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer: Uppsala University
Luke Winslow: Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
R. Iestyn Woolway: University of Reading

Nature Climate Change, 2019, vol. 9, issue 3, 227-231

Abstract: Abstract Ice provides a range of ecosystem services—including fish harvest1, cultural traditions2, transportation3, recreation4 and regulation of the hydrological cycle5—to more than half of the world’s 117 million lakes. One of the earliest observed impacts of climatic warming has been the loss of freshwater ice6, with corresponding climatic and ecological consequences7. However, while trends in ice cover phenology have been widely documented2,6,8,9, a comprehensive large-scale assessment of lake ice loss is absent. Here, using observations from 513 lakes around the Northern Hemisphere, we identify lakes vulnerable to ice-free winters. Our analyses reveal the importance of air temperature, lake depth, elevation and shoreline complexity in governing ice cover. We estimate that 14,800 lakes currently experience intermittent winter ice cover, increasing to 35,300 and 230,400 at 2 and 8 °C, respectively, and impacting up to 394 and 656 million people. Our study illustrates that an extensive loss of lake ice will occur within the next generation, stressing the importance of climate mitigation strategies to preserve ecosystem structure and function, as well as local winter cultural heritage.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0393-5

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