Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system

Calum Brown (), Peter Alexander, Almut Arneth, Ian Holman and Mark Rounsevell
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Calum Brown: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Peter Alexander: University of Edinburgh
Almut Arneth: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Ian Holman: Cranfield University
Mark Rounsevell: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

Nature Climate Change, 2019, vol. 9, issue 3, 203-208

Abstract: Abstract Achieving the Paris Agreement’s aim of limiting average global temperature increases to 1.5 °C requires substantial changes in the land system. However, individual countries’ plans to accomplish these changes remain vague, almost certainly insufficient and unlikely to be implemented in full. These shortcomings are partially the result of avoidable ‘blind spots’ relating to time lags inherent in the implementation of land-based mitigation strategies. Key blind spots include inconsistencies between different land-system policies, spatial and temporal lags in land-system change, and detrimental consequences of some mitigation options. We suggest that improved recognition of these processes is necessary to identify achievable mitigation actions, avoiding excessively optimistic assumptions and consequent policy failures.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0400-5

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