Halving warming with idealized solar geoengineering moderates key climate hazards

Peter Irvine (), Kerry Emanuel, Jie He, Larry W. Horowitz, Gabriel Vecchi and David Keith
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Peter Irvine: Harvard University
Kerry Emanuel: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Jie He: Princeton University
Larry W. Horowitz: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Gabriel Vecchi: Princeton University
David Keith: Harvard University

Nature Climate Change, 2019, vol. 9, issue 4, 295-299

Abstract: Abstract Solar geoengineering (SG) has the potential to restore average surface temperatures by increasing planetary albedo1–4, but this could reduce precipitation5–7. Thus, although SG might reduce globally aggregated risks, it may increase climate risks for some regions8–10. Here, using the high-resolution forecast-oriented low ocean resolution (HiFLOR) model—which resolves tropical cyclones and has an improved representation of present-day precipitation extremes11,12—alongside 12 models from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), we analyse the fraction of locations that see their local climate change exacerbated or moderated by SG. Rather than restoring temperatures, we assume that SG is applied to halve the warming produced by doubling CO2 (half-SG). In HiFLOR, half-SG offsets most of the CO2-induced increase of simulated tropical cyclone intensity. Moreover, neither temperature, water availability, extreme temperature nor extreme precipitation are exacerbated under half-SG when averaged over any Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Extremes (SREX) region. Indeed, for both extreme precipitation and water availability, less than 0.4% of the ice-free land surface sees exacerbation. Thus, while concerns about the inequality of solar geoengineering impacts are appropriate, the quantitative extent of inequality may be overstated13.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0398-8

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