Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change

Alex Hall (), Peter Cox, Chris Huntingford and Stephen Klein
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Alex Hall: University of California — Los Angeles
Peter Cox: University of Exeter
Chris Huntingford: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Stephen Klein: PCMDI, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Nature Climate Change, 2019, vol. 9, issue 4, 269-278

Abstract: Abstract In recent years, an evaluation technique for Earth System Models (ESMs) has arisen—emergent constraints (ECs)—which rely on strong statistical relationships between aspects of current climate and future change across an ESM ensemble. Combining the EC relationship with observations could reduce uncertainty surrounding future change. Here, we articulate a framework to assess ECs, and provide indicators whereby a proposed EC may move from a strong statistical relationship to confirmation. The primary indicators are verified mechanisms and out-of-sample testing. Confirmed ECs have the potential to improve ESMs by focusing attention on the variables most relevant to climate projections. Looking forward, there may be undiscovered ECs for extremes and teleconnections, and ECs may help identify climate system tipping points.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0436-6

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