The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions

Declan Conway (), Robert J. Nicholls, Sally Brown, Mark G. L. Tebboth, William Neil Adger, Bashir Ahmad, Hester Biemans, Florence Crick, Arthur F. Lutz, Ricardo Safra Campos, Mohammed Said, Chandni Singh, Modathir Abdalla Hassan Zaroug, Eva Ludi, Mark New and Philippus Wester
Additional contact information
Declan Conway: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science
Robert J. Nicholls: University of Southampton
Sally Brown: University of Southampton
Mark G. L. Tebboth: University of East Anglia
William Neil Adger: University of Exeter
Bashir Ahmad: National Agricultural Research Centre, NIH
Hester Biemans: Wageningen University and Research
Florence Crick: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science
Arthur F. Lutz: FutureWater
Ricardo Safra Campos: University of Exeter
Mohammed Said: Kenya Markets Trust
Chandni Singh: Indian Institute for Human Settlements
Modathir Abdalla Hassan Zaroug: University of Cape Town
Eva Ludi: Overseas Development Institute
Mark New: University of East Anglia
Philippus Wester: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Nature Climate Change, 2019, vol. 9, issue 7, 503-511

Abstract: Abstract Studies of climate change at specific intervals of future warming have primarily been addressed through top-down approaches using climate projections and modelled impacts. In contrast, bottom-up approaches focus on the recent past and present vulnerability. Here, we examine climate signals at different increments of warming and consider the need to reconcile top-down and bottom-up approaches. We synthesise insights from recent studies in three climate-sensitive systems where change is a defining feature of the human-environment system. Whilst top-down and bottom-up approaches generate complementary insights into who and what is at risk, integrating their results is a much-needed step towards developing relevant information to address the needs of immediate adaptation decisions.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0502-0

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