Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Joao Morim (), Mark Hemer, Xiaolan L. Wang, Nick Cartwright, Claire Trenham, Alvaro Semedo, Ian Young, Lucy Bricheno, Paula Camus, Mercè Casas-Prat, Li Erikson, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Nobuhito Mori, Tomoya Shimura, Ben Timmermans, Ole Aarnes, Øyvind Breivik, Arno Behrens, Mikhail Dobrynin, Melisa Menendez, Joanna Staneva, Michael Wehner, Judith Wolf, Bahareh Kamranzad, Adrean Webb, Justin Stopa and Fernando Andutta
Additional contact information
Joao Morim: Griffith University
Mark Hemer: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Oceans and Atmosphere
Xiaolan L. Wang: Climate Research Division
Nick Cartwright: Griffith University
Claire Trenham: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Oceans and Atmosphere
Alvaro Semedo: IHE-Delft, Department of Water Science and Engineering
Ian Young: University of Melbourne
Lucy Bricheno: National Oceanographic Centre
Paula Camus: Universidad de Cantabria
Mercè Casas-Prat: Climate Research Division
Li Erikson: Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Lorenzo Mentaschi: European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Nobuhito Mori: Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
Tomoya Shimura: Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
Ben Timmermans: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Ole Aarnes: Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Øyvind Breivik: Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Arno Behrens: Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research
Mikhail Dobrynin: Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Universität Hamburg
Melisa Menendez: Universidad de Cantabria
Joanna Staneva: Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research
Michael Wehner: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Judith Wolf: National Oceanographic Centre
Bahareh Kamranzad: Kyoto University
Adrean Webb: Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
Justin Stopa: University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
Fernando Andutta: Griffith University

Nature Climate Change, 2019, vol. 9, issue 9, 711-718

Abstract: Abstract Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5

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