Nitrogen and phosphorus constrain the CO2 fertilization of global plant biomass

César Terrer (), Robert B. Jackson, I. Colin Prentice, Trevor F. Keenan, Christina Kaiser, Sara Vicca, Joshua B. Fisher, Peter B. Reich, Benjamin D. Stocker, Bruce A. Hungate, Josep Peñuelas, Ian McCallum, Nadejda A. Soudzilovskaia, Lucas A. Cernusak, Alan F. Talhelm, Kevin Van Sundert, Shilong Piao, Paul C. D. Newton, Mark J. Hovenden, Dana M. Blumenthal, Yi Y. Liu, Christoph Müller, Klaus Winter, Christopher B. Field, Wolfgang Viechtbauer, Caspar J. Van Lissa, Marcel R. Hoosbeek, Makoto Watanabe, Takayoshi Koike, Victor O. Leshyk, H. Wayne Polley and Oskar Franklin
Additional contact information
César Terrer: Stanford University
Robert B. Jackson: Stanford University
I. Colin Prentice: Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus
Trevor F. Keenan: UC Berkeley
Christina Kaiser: University of Vienna
Sara Vicca: University of Antwerp
Joshua B. Fisher: California Institute of Technology
Peter B. Reich: University of Minnesota
Benjamin D. Stocker: CREAF
Bruce A. Hungate: Northern Arizona University
Josep Peñuelas: CREAF
Ian McCallum: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Nadejda A. Soudzilovskaia: Leiden University
Lucas A. Cernusak: James Cook University
Alan F. Talhelm: University of Idaho
Kevin Van Sundert: University of Antwerp
Shilong Piao: Peking University
Paul C. D. Newton: Land & Environmental Management, AgResearch
Mark J. Hovenden: University of Tasmania
Dana M. Blumenthal: United States Department of Agriculture
Yi Y. Liu: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Christoph Müller: Justus Liebig University of Giessen
Klaus Winter: Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Christopher B. Field: Stanford University
Wolfgang Viechtbauer: Maastricht University
Caspar J. Van Lissa: Utrecht University
Marcel R. Hoosbeek: Wageningen University
Makoto Watanabe: Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology
Takayoshi Koike: Hokkaido University
Victor O. Leshyk: Northern Arizona University
H. Wayne Polley: USDA, Agricultural Research Service, Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory
Oskar Franklin: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Nature Climate Change, 2019, vol. 9, issue 9, 684-689

Abstract: Abstract Elevated CO2 (eCO2) experiments provide critical information to quantify the effects of rising CO2 on vegetation1–6. Many eCO2 experiments suggest that nutrient limitations modulate the local magnitude of the eCO2 effect on plant biomass1,3,5, but the global extent of these limitations has not been empirically quantified, complicating projections of the capacity of plants to take up CO27,8. Here, we present a data-driven global quantification of the eCO2 effect on biomass based on 138 eCO2 experiments. The strength of CO2 fertilization is primarily driven by nitrogen (N) in ~65% of global vegetation and by phosphorus (P) in ~25% of global vegetation, with N- or P-limitation modulated by mycorrhizal association. Our approach suggests that CO2 levels expected by 2100 can potentially enhance plant biomass by 12 ± 3% above current values, equivalent to 59 ± 13 PgC. The future effect of eCO2 we derive from experiments is geographically consistent with past changes in greenness9, but is considerably lower than the past effect derived from models10. If borne out, our results suggest that the stimulatory effect of CO2 on carbon storage could slow considerably this century. Our research provides an empirical estimate of the biomass sensitivity to eCO2 that may help to constrain climate projections.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0545-2

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