Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2 °C world

Peter Pfleiderer (), Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kai Kornhuber and Dim Coumou
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Peter Pfleiderer: Climate Analytics
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner: Climate Analytics
Kai Kornhuber: Columbia University
Dim Coumou: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Nature Climate Change, 2019, vol. 9, issue 9, 666-671

Abstract: Abstract Heat and rainfall extremes have intensified over the past few decades and this trend is projected to continue with future global warming1–3. A long persistence of extreme events often leads to societal impacts with warm-and-dry conditions severely affecting agriculture and consecutive days of heavy rainfall leading to flooding. Here we report systematic increases in the persistence of boreal summer weather in a multi-model analysis of a world 2 °C above pre-industrial compared to present-day climate. Averaged over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land area, the probability of warm periods lasting longer than two weeks is projected to increase by 4% (2–6% full uncertainty range) after removing seasonal-mean warming. Compound dry–warm persistence increases at a similar magnitude on average but regionally up to 20% (11–42%) in eastern North America. The probability of at least seven consecutive days of strong precipitation increases by 26% (15–37%) for the mid-latitudes. We present evidence that weakening storm track activity contributes to the projected increase in warm and dry persistence. These changes in persistence are largely avoided when warming is limited to 1.5 °C. In conjunction with the projected intensification of heat and rainfall extremes, an increase in persistence can substantially worsen the effects of future weather extremes.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0555-0

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