Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016

Gerald A. Meehl (), Julie M. Arblaster, Christine T. Y. Chung, Marika M. Holland, Alice DuVivier, LuAnne Thompson, Dongxia Yang and Cecilia M. Bitz
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Gerald A. Meehl: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Julie M. Arblaster: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Christine T. Y. Chung: Bureau of Meteorology
Marika M. Holland: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Alice DuVivier: National Center for Atmospheric Research
LuAnne Thompson: University of Washington
Dongxia Yang: Monash University
Cecilia M. Bitz: University of Washington

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract After nearly three decades of observed increasing trends of Antarctic sea ice extent, in September-October-November 2016, there was a dramatic decrease. Here we document factors that contributed to that decrease. An atmosphere-only model with a specified positive convective heating anomaly in the eastern Indian/western Pacific Ocean, representing the record positive precipitation anomalies there in September-October-November 2016, produces an anomalous atmospheric Rossby wave response with mid- and high latitude surface wind anomalies that contribute to the decrease of Antarctic sea ice extent. The sustained decreases of Antarctic sea ice extent after late 2016 are associated with a warmer upper Southern Ocean. This is the culmination of a negative decadal trend of wind stress curl with positive Southern Annular Mode and negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Ekman suction that results in warmer water being moved upward in the column closer to the surface, a transition to positive Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation around 2014–2016, and negative Southern Annular Mode in late 2016.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07865-9

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