Ocean temperature impact on ice shelf extent in the eastern Antarctic Peninsula

Johan Etourneau (), Giovanni Sgubin, Xavier Crosta, Didier Swingedouw, Verónica Willmott, Loïc Barbara, Marie-Noëlle Houssais, Stefan Schouten, Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté, Hugues Goosse, Carlota Escutia, Julien Crespin, Guillaume Massé and Jung-Hyun Kim
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Johan Etourneau: CSIC-Universidad Granada
Giovanni Sgubin: CSIC-Universidad Granada
Xavier Crosta: CSIC-Universidad Granada
Didier Swingedouw: CSIC-Universidad Granada
Verónica Willmott: Utrecht University
Loïc Barbara: Universidad Autónoma de Baja California
Marie-Noëlle Houssais: Université Pierre et Marie Curie
Stefan Schouten: Utrecht University
Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté: Utrecht University
Hugues Goosse: Université de Louvain
Carlota Escutia: Université de Bordeaux
Julien Crespin: CSIC-Universidad Granada
Guillaume Massé: Université de Laval
Jung-Hyun Kim: Utrecht University

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract The recent thinning and retreat of Antarctic ice shelves has been attributed to both atmosphere and ocean warming. However, the lack of continuous, multi-year direct observations as well as limitations of climate and ice shelf models prevent a precise assessment on how the ocean forcing affects the fluctuations of a grounded and floating ice cap. Here we show that a +0.3–1.5 °C increase in subsurface ocean temperature (50–400 m) in the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula has driven to major collapse and recession of the regional ice shelf during both the instrumental period and the last 9000 years. Our projections following the representative concentration pathway 8.5 emission scenario from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reveal a +0.3 °C subsurface ocean temperature warming within the coming decades that will undoubtedly accelerate ice shelf melting, including the southernmost sector of the eastern Antarctic Peninsula.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-08195-6

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