Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics of the 2017 extreme coastal El Niño

Qihua Peng, Shang-Ping Xie (), Dongxiao Wang (), Xiao-Tong Zheng and Hong Zhang
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Qihua Peng: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Shang-Ping Xie: University of California San Diego
Dongxiao Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xiao-Tong Zheng: Ocean University of China, and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Hong Zhang: University of California

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract In March 2017, sea surface temperatures off Peru rose above 28 °C, causing torrential rains that affected the lives of millions of people. This coastal warming is highly unusual in that it took place with a weak La Niña state. Observations and ocean model experiments show that the downwelling Kelvin waves caused by strong westerly wind events over the equatorial Pacific, together with anomalous northerly coastal winds, are important. Atmospheric model experiments further show the anomalous coastal winds are forced by the coastal warming. Taken together, these results indicate a positive feedback off Peru between the coastal warming, atmospheric deep convection, and the coastal winds. These coupled processes provide predictability. Indeed, initialized on as early as 1 February 2017, seasonal prediction models captured the extreme rainfall event. Climate model projections indicate that the frequency of extreme coastal El Niño will increase under global warming.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-08258-8

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