Resilience of the Eastern African electricity sector to climate driven changes in hydropower generation

Vignesh Sridharan (), Oliver Broad, Abhishek Shivakumar, Mark Howells, Brent Boehlert, David G. Groves, H-Holger Rogner, Constantinos Taliotis, James E. Neumann, Kenneth M. Strzepek, Robert Lempert, Brian Joyce, Annette Huber-Lee and Raffaello Cervigni
Additional contact information
Vignesh Sridharan: KTH – Royal Institute of Technology, Unit of Energy Systems Analysis
Oliver Broad: KTH – Royal Institute of Technology, Unit of Energy Systems Analysis
Abhishek Shivakumar: KTH – Royal Institute of Technology, Unit of Energy Systems Analysis
Mark Howells: KTH – Royal Institute of Technology, Unit of Energy Systems Analysis
Brent Boehlert: Industrial Economics Inc.
David G. Groves: RAND Corporation
H-Holger Rogner: KTH – Royal Institute of Technology, Unit of Energy Systems Analysis
Constantinos Taliotis: The Cyprus Institute
James E. Neumann: Industrial Economics Inc.
Kenneth M. Strzepek: Industrial Economics Inc.
Robert Lempert: RAND Corporation
Brian Joyce: Stockholm Environment Institute-US Centre
Annette Huber-Lee: Stockholm Environment Institute-US Centre
Raffaello Cervigni: World Bank

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Notwithstanding current heavy dependence on gas-fired electricity generation in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), hydropower is expected to play an essential role in improving electricity access in the region. Expansion planning of electricity infrastructure is critical to support investment and maintaining balanced consumer electricity prices. Variations in water availability due to a changing climate could leave hydro infrastructure stranded or result in underutilization of available resources. In this study, we develop a framework consisting of long-term models for electricity supply and water systems management, to assess the vulnerability of potential expansion plans to the effects of climate change. We find that the most resilient EAPP rollout strategy corresponds to a plan optimised for a slightly wetter climate compared to historical trends. This study demonstrates that failing to climate-proof infrastructure investments can result in significant electricity price fluctuations in selected countries (Uganda & Tanzania) while others, such as Egypt, are less vulnerable.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-08275-7

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