Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates

Kieran T. Bhatia (), Gabriel A. Vecchi, Thomas R. Knutson, Hiroyuki Murakami, James Kossin, Keith W. Dixon and Carolyn E. Whitlock
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Kieran T. Bhatia: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Gabriel A. Vecchi: Princeton University
Thomas R. Knutson: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Hiroyuki Murakami: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
James Kossin: University of Wisconsin
Keith W. Dixon: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Carolyn E. Whitlock: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify are typically associated with the highest forecast errors and cause a disproportionate amount of human and financial losses. Therefore, it is crucial to understand if, and why, there are observed upward trends in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Here, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982–2009. We compare the observed trends to natural variability in bias-corrected, high-resolution, global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of tropical cyclone intensification. Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08471-z

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