Effect of the Great Recession on regional mortality trends in Europe

Joan Ballester (), Jean-Marie Robine, François R. Herrmann and Xavier Rodó
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Joan Ballester: Climate and Health Program, Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal)
Jean-Marie Robine: Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)
François R. Herrmann: Division of Geriatrics, Department of Rehabilitation and Geriatrics, Geneva University Hospitals and University of Geneva
Xavier Rodó: Climate and Health Program, Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal)

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Previous studies have consistently shown the recurrent relationship between macroeconomic cycles and changes in mortality trends, so that recessions are generally associated with periods of faster life expectancy rise, and periods of economic growth with slower reductions or even increases in mortality trends. Here we analyze the link between annual per capita estimates of gross domestic product and daily atmospheric temperatures and standardized death rates for a large ensemble of European regions to describe the effect of the Great Recession on annual and seasonal changes in all-cause human mortality trends. Results show that the countries and regions with the largest (smallest) economic slowdown were also those with the largest (smallest) strengthening of the declining mortality trend. This procyclical evolution of mortality rates is found to be stronger during the cold part of the year, showing that it also depends on the seasonal timing of the underlying causes of death.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08539-w

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