Assessing the Policy gaps for achieving China’s climate targets in the Paris Agreement

Kelly Sims Gallagher, Fang Zhang (), Robbie Orvis, Jeffrey Rissman and Qiang Liu
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Kelly Sims Gallagher: Climate Policy Lab, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University
Fang Zhang: Climate Policy Lab, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University
Robbie Orvis: Energy Innovation
Jeffrey Rissman: Energy Innovation
Qiang Liu: National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract China committed to peak its carbon emissions around 2030, with best efforts to peak early, and also to achieve 20% non-fossil energy as a proportion of primary energy supply by 2030. These commitments were included in China’s nationally-determined contribution to the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. We develop and apply a mixed-method methodology for analyzing the likelihood of current Chinese policies reducing greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with China’s Paris commitments. We find that China is likely to peak its emissions well in advance of 2030 and achieve its non-fossil target conditional on full and effective implementation of all current policies, successful conclusion of power-sector reform, and full implementation of a national emissions-trading system (ETS) for the power and additional major industrial sectors after 2020. Several policy gaps are identified and discussed.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09159-0

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